Dynamo Dresden 6–0 Preußen Münster: Result & Stats

Dynamo Dresden

FT

6 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Preußen Münster

J. Ceka 74'

V. Vermeij 59'

N. Hauptmann 57', 31'

B. Bobzien 18', 14'

3/15/2026

2. Bundesliga · Round 26Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Dynamo Dresden46%

×Draw25%

Preußen Münster29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo DresdenExpected goals in this matchPreußen Münster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.20

Dynamo Dresden

1.56

Preußen Münster

1.20

Dynamo Dresden creates 30% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 34 away

1.33

creates per match

1.15

1.25

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Dynamo Dresden

1.33

Preußen Münster

1.15

allows per match

Dynamo Dresden

1.25

Preußen Münster

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Dresden+0.00on par

Preußen Münster+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Dresden ↓

Preußen Münster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Dynamo Dresden or draw

71%

Dynamo Dresden or Preußen Münster

75%

Draw or Preußen Münster

54%

Winning margin

Dynamo Dresden wins by 2+

23%

Preußen Münster wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dynamo Dresden 1+ goals

79%

Dynamo Dresden 2+ goals

46%

Dynamo Dresden 3+ goals

21%

Preußen Münster 1+ goals

70%

Preußen Münster 2+ goals

34%

Preußen Münster 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Dresden (draw refunded)

61%

Preußen Münster (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Dresden at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.25 · 69 matches

Preußen Münster away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Dresden attack 1.33 + Preußen Münster defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.56

Preußen Münster attack 1.15 + Dynamo Dresden defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dynamo Dresden scores more

46%

level

25%

Preußen Münster scores more

29%

Dynamo Dresden at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dynamo Dresden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

N. Hauptmann

Dynamo Dresden · M

10.0

Match Events

14'

B. Bobzien↳ N. Hauptmann

17'

Marco Meyerhöfer

18'

B. Bobzien↳ N. Hauptmann

30'

Kofi Jeremy Amoako

31'

N. Hauptmann↳ A. Rossipal

38'

C. Makridis← M. Meyerhofer

46'

Z. Sertdemir← J. Mees

46'

I. Rondic← O. Vilhelmsson

57'

N. Hauptmann↳ V. Vermeij

59'

V. Vermeij

60'

E. Amenyido← M. Schulz

70'

L. Herrmann← N. Hauptmann

70'

F. Muller← T. Keller

74'

J. Ceka↳ J. Sterner

75'

L. Boeder← K. Amoako

75'

C. Daferner← V. Vermeij

78'

N. Koulis← J. Hendrix

81'

Marcel Benger

83'

S. Kutschke← J. Ceka

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DynamoPreußen

Overview

45%Possession55%

18Total Shots13

2.97Expected Goals (xG)0.69

5Corners4

5Fouls13

Shots

18Total Shots13

8On Target3

7Off Target4

3Blocked6

12Inside Box8

6Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

456Total Passes567

374Accurate Passes491

82%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

-2.75Goals Prevented-2.75

Discipline

5Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2