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Preussen Munster vs Dynamo Dresden — League #80 2026

Preussen Munster
Preussen Munster
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dynamo Dresden
Dynamo Dresden
2/1/2015League #80League #80 · Round 23Preußen-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Preussen Munster45%
×Draw25%
Dynamo Dresden30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preussen Munster
1.60
Dynamo Dresden
1.25

Preussen Munster creates 28% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 3 away

creates per match

Preussen Munster
1.54
Dynamo Dresden
1.33

allows per match

Preussen Munster
1.17
Dynamo Dresden
1.67

finishing

Preussen Munster+0.00on par
Dynamo Dresden+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preussen Munster ↓

Dynamo Dresden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Preussen Munster or draw
70%
Preussen Munster or Dynamo Dresden
75%
Draw or Dynamo Dresden
55%

Winning margin

Preussen Munster wins by 2+
23%
Dynamo Dresden wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Preussen Munster 1+ goals
80%
Preussen Munster 2+ goals
47%
Preussen Munster 3+ goals
22%
Dynamo Dresden 1+ goals
71%
Dynamo Dresden 2+ goals
36%
Dynamo Dresden 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Preussen Munster (draw refunded)
60%
Dynamo Dresden (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preussen Munster at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches

Dynamo Dresden away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preussen Munster attack 1.54 + Dynamo Dresden defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.60

Dynamo Dresden attack 1.33 + Preussen Munster defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Preussen Munster scores more
45%
level
25%
Dynamo Dresden scores more
30%

Preussen Munster at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Preussen Munster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Preussen Munster vs Dynamo Dresden

Preussen Munster beat Dynamo Dresden 2-1 in League #80 on February 1, 2015.

The match was played at Preußen-Stadion in Münster.