Preston 0–1 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Preston

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Stoke City

L. Gregory 39'

9/26/2020

Championship · Round 3Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 50+ matches

Preston44%

×Draw27%

Stoke City30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.10

Preston

1.39

Stoke City

1.10

Preston creates 26% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 50 away

1.14

creates per match

1.04

1.17

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Preston

1.14

Stoke City

1.04

allows per match

Preston

1.17

Stoke City

1.64

+0.07on par

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Preston+0.07on par

Stoke City-0.26scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Preston or draw

70%

Preston or Stoke City

73%

Draw or Stoke City

56%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

21%

Stoke City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

75%

Preston 2+ goals

40%

Preston 3+ goals

16%

Stoke City 1+ goals

67%

Stoke City 2+ goals

30%

Stoke City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

59%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 62 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.64 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.14 + Stoke City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.39

Stoke City attack 1.04 + Preston defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Preston scores more

44%

level

27%

Stoke City scores more

30%

Preston at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

36

H. Souttar

Stoke City · D

7.7

Match Events

22'

39'

58'

59'

65'

66'

71'

B. Potts← S. Sinclair

77'

J. Brown← S. Fletcher

81'

J. Rafferty← R. Ledson

85'

J. Thompson← T. Oakley-Boothe

87'

Jacob Brown

90'

Sean Maguire

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonStoke

Overview

35%Possession65%

14Total Shots15

7Corners7

14Fouls16

Shots

14Total Shots15

4On Target4

6Off Target9

4Blocked2

8Inside Box13

6Outside Box2

Passing

35%Possession65%

257Total Passes478

162Accurate Passes374

63%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls16

1Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

3Offsides2