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Preston vs Stoke City — Championship 2018

Preston
Preston
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Stoke City
Stoke City
8/18/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 3Deepdale Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 51+ matches

Preston43%
×Draw27%
Stoke City30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.38
Stoke City
1.11

Preston creates 24% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 51 away

creates per match

Preston
1.14
Stoke City
1.05

allows per match

Preston
1.17
Stoke City
1.62

finishing

Preston+0.07on par
Stoke City-0.29scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Preston or draw
70%
Preston or Stoke City
73%
Draw or Stoke City
57%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
20%
Stoke City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
75%
Preston 2+ goals
40%
Preston 3+ goals
16%
Stoke City 1+ goals
67%
Stoke City 2+ goals
30%
Stoke City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
59%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 62 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.62 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.14 + Stoke City defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.38

Stoke City attack 1.05 + Preston defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Preston scores more
43%
level
27%
Stoke City scores more
30%

Preston at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Preston vs Stoke City

Preston and Stoke City drew 2-2 in Championship on August 18, 2018.

The match was played at Deepdale Stadium in Preston.