Preston 0–3 Hull City: Result & Stats

Preston

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Hull City

O. McBurnie 49'

A. Famewo 45'

L. Millar 33'

1/20/2026

Championship · Round 28Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 56+ matches

Preston41%

×Draw27%

Hull City32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.16

Preston

1.33

Hull City

1.16

Preston creates 15% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 56 away

1.15

creates per match

1.11

1.20

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Preston

1.15

Hull City

1.11

allows per match

Preston

1.20

Hull City

1.52

+0.04on par

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Preston+0.04on par

Hull City+0.05on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Preston or draw

68%

Preston or Hull City

73%

Draw or Hull City

59%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

19%

Hull City wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

74%

Preston 2+ goals

38%

Preston 3+ goals

15%

Hull City 1+ goals

69%

Hull City 2+ goals

32%

Hull City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

56%

Hull City (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.20 · 58 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.52 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.15 + Hull City defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.33

Hull City attack 1.11 + Preston defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Preston scores more

41%

level

27%

Hull City scores more

32%

Preston at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

A. Famewo

Hull City · D

8.3

Match Events

33'

L. Millar↳ B. Akintola

45+2'

Odeluga Offiah

45'

A. Famewo↳ O. McBurnie

46'

J. Lewis← P. Valentin

46'

L. Dobbin← T. Small

46'

D. Jebbison← M. Smith

48'

Y. Hirakawa← B. Akintola

49'

O. McBurnie↳ Y. Hirakawa

51'

Lewie Coyle

57'

Jamal Lewis

59'

John Egan

69'

J. Lundstram← M. Crooks

69'

J. Gelhardt← L. Millar

74'

B. Potts← J. Thompson

74'

A. McCann← B. Whiteman

81'

J. Ndala← O. McBurnie

82'

C. McCarthy← J. Egan

90+5'

Milutin Osmajić

90+8'

John Lundstram

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonHull

Overview

55%Possession45%

17Total Shots17

0.95Expected Goals (xG)1.56

6Corners6

13Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots17

5On Target9

6Off Target3

6Blocked5

8Inside Box11

9Outside Box6

Passing

55%Possession45%

397Total Passes329

321Accurate Passes250

81%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

6Saves5

0.44Goals Prevented0.44

Discipline

13Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1