Hull City 2–2 Preston: Result & Stats

Hull City

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Preston

O. McBurnie 74', 48'

M. Smith 10'

T. Small 3'

9/30/2025

Championship · Round 8MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Hull City40%

×Draw26%

Preston34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchPreston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.31

Hull City

1.43

Preston

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 24 away

1.32

creates per match

1.12

1.51

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Hull City

1.32

Preston

1.12

allows per match

Hull City

1.51

Preston

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par

Preston+0.21scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Preston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

66%

Hull City or Preston

74%

Draw or Preston

60%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

19%

Preston wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

76%

Hull City 2+ goals

42%

Hull City 3+ goals

17%

Preston 1+ goals

73%

Preston 2+ goals

38%

Preston 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

54%

Preston (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.51 · 19 matches

Preston away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.32 + Preston defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.43

Preston attack 1.12 + Hull City defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hull City scores more

40%

level

26%

Preston scores more

34%

Hull City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

O. McBurnie

Hull City · F

8.0

Match Events

3'

T. Small

10'

M. Smith↳ B. Whiteman

46'

L. Millar← A. Hadziahmetovic

46'

J. Gelhardt← C. Drameh

46'

R. Slater← K. Palmer

48'

O. McBurnie↳ R. Giles

51'

Liam Lindsay

71'

A. McCann← A. Devine

71'

D. Jebbison← M. Smith

72'

E. Destan← K. Joseph

74'

O. McBurnie↳ R. Giles

81'

M. Frokjaer-Jensen← H. Armstrong

84'

A. Famewo← R. Giles

90+2'

O. Offiah← A. Vukcevic

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HullPreston

Overview

59%Possession41%

10Total Shots13

1.82Expected Goals (xG)1.43

5Corners3

11Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots13

5On Target5

3Off Target4

2Blocked4

7Inside Box7

3Outside Box6

Passing

59%Possession41%

438Total Passes290

336Accurate Passes205

77%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

0.04Goals Prevented0.04

Discipline

11Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1

3Offsides3