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Preston vs Hull City — Championship 2025

Preston
Preston
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hull City
Hull City
3/2/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 35Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Preston40%
×Draw26%
Hull City34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.36
Hull City
1.23

Preston creates 11% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 18 away

creates per match

Preston
1.00
Hull City
1.17

allows per match

Preston
1.28
Hull City
1.73

finishing

Preston+0.29scores more
Hull City-0.06on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Preston or draw
66%
Preston or Hull City
74%
Draw or Hull City
60%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
18%
Hull City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
74%
Preston 2+ goals
39%
Preston 3+ goals
16%
Hull City 1+ goals
71%
Hull City 2+ goals
35%
Hull City 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
54%
Hull City (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.28 · 24 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.73 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.00 + Hull City defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.36

Hull City attack 1.17 + Preston defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Preston scores more
40%
level
26%
Hull City scores more
34%

Preston at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
J. GreavesHull CityHull City · D
8.2

Match Events

40'
Ryan Giles
65'
A. Ömür← A. Zaroury
68'
M. Osmajić← W. Keane
68'
D. Holmes← M. Frøkjær-Jensen
77'
B. Sharp← J. Seri
83'
Alistair McCann
86'
O. Tufan← Fábio Carvalho

Possession

43%Preston

Shots

16Preston

Pass accuracy

48%Preston

Statistics

PrestonHull
Overview
43%Possession57%
16Total Shots15
1.06Expected Goals (xG)1.10
8Corners8
12Fouls6
Shots
16Total Shots15
4On Target4
6Off Target3
6Blocked8
9Inside Box7
7Outside Box8
Passing
43%Possession57%
359Total Passes489
255Accurate Passes370
71%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls6
1Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: Preston vs Hull City

Preston and Hull City drew 0-0 in Championship on March 2, 2024.

Hull City controlled possession (57%) and registered 15 shots to 16.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.