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Hull City vs Preston — Championship 2025

Hull City
Hull City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Preston
Preston
J. Gelhardt 67' (pen), 50' (pen)
L. Gibson 34'
4/21/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 44The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Hull City41%
×Draw26%
Preston34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.43
Preston
1.28

Hull City creates 12% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 23 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.33
Preston
1.11

allows per match

Hull City
1.45
Preston
1.53

finishing

Hull City-0.08on par
Preston+0.19scores more

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Preston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
66%
Hull City or Preston
74%
Draw or Preston
59%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
19%
Preston wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
76%
Hull City 2+ goals
42%
Hull City 3+ goals
17%
Preston 1+ goals
72%
Preston 2+ goals
37%
Preston 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
55%
Preston (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.45 · 16 matches

Preston away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.53 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.33 + Preston defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

Preston attack 1.11 + Hull City defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hull City scores more
41%
level
26%
Preston scores more
34%

Hull City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
J. GelhardtHull CityHull City · M
8.9

Match Events

34'
L. Gibson
50'
J. GelhardtPenalty
58'
A. Hughes← J. Meghoma
60'
G. Puerta← S. Alzate
66'
Stefán Teitur Þórðarson
67'
J. GelhardtPenalty
77'
C. Evans← L. Gibson
78'
M. Burstow← A. Kamara
78'
Lincoln← N. Amrabat
80'
Mads Frøkjær-Jensen
82'
E. Riis← M. Frøkjær-Jensen
87'
João Pedro← K. Joseph
87'
A. Jones← J. Gelhardt
90+2'
Robbie Brady

Possession

44%Hull

Shots

16Hull

Pass accuracy

49%Hull

Statistics

HullPreston
Overview
44%Possession56%
16Total Shots16
2.32Expected Goals (xG)1.04
9Corners6
7Fouls8
Shots
16Total Shots16
6On Target2
6Off Target5
4Blocked9
10Inside Box11
6Outside Box5
Passing
44%Possession56%
321Total Passes418
239Accurate Passes325
74%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
0.25Goals Prevented0.25
Discipline
7Fouls8
0Yellow Cards3
5Offsides5

Championship: Hull City 2–1 Preston

Hull City beat Preston 2-1 in Championship on April 21, 2025.

Goals: L. Gibson (34'), J. Gelhardt (50' pen, 67' pen).

Preston controlled possession (56%) and registered 16 shots to 16.

The match was played at The MKM Stadium in Hull.