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Preston vs Blackburn — Championship 2025

Preston
Preston
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Blackburn
Blackburn
A. Devine 45'
A. Gudjohnsen 62'
L. Miller 45'
11/21/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 16Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Preston30%
×Draw28%
Blackburn42%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.04
Blackburn
1.29

Blackburn creates 24% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 8 away

creates per match

Preston
0.91
Blackburn
1.37

allows per match

Preston
1.21
Blackburn
1.17

finishing

Preston+0.15scores more
Blackburn-0.12scores less

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Preston or draw
58%
Preston or Blackburn
72%
Draw or Blackburn
70%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
11%
Blackburn wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
65%
Preston 2+ goals
28%
Preston 3+ goals
9%
Blackburn 1+ goals
72%
Blackburn 2+ goals
37%
Blackburn 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
42%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.21 · 16 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.17 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 0.91 + Blackburn defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.04

Blackburn attack 1.37 + Preston defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Preston scores more
30%
level
28%
Blackburn scores more
42%

Blackburn at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
A. DevinePrestonPreston · M
8.9

Match Events

45'
L. Miller↳ R. Hedges
45'
A. Devine↳ L. Dobbin
57'
D. Jebbison← L. Dobbin
58'
M. Frokjaer-Jensen← S. T. Thordarson
62'
A. Gudjohnsen↳ R. Morishita
70'
J. Lewis← J. Storey
84'
M. Gueye← A. Gudjohnsen
85'
M. Baradji← R. Morishita
85'
A. Henriksson← K. Montgomery
90+3'
Benjamin Whiteman

Possession

46%Preston

Shots

15Preston

Pass accuracy

48%Preston

Statistics

PrestonBlackburn
Overview
46%Possession54%
15Total Shots12
1.70Expected Goals (xG)1.23
3Corners7
11Fouls3
Shots
15Total Shots12
4On Target6
5Off Target4
6Blocked2
12Inside Box8
3Outside Box4
Passing
46%Possession54%
351Total Passes419
257Accurate Passes326
73%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
0.53Goals Prevented0.53
Discipline
11Fouls3
1Yellow Cards0
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Preston vs Blackburn

Blackburn beat Preston 2-1 in Championship on November 21, 2025.

Goals: L. Miller (45'), A. Devine (45'), A. Gudjohnsen (62').

Blackburn controlled possession (54%) and registered 12 shots to 15.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.