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Preston vs Blackburn — Championship 2025

Preston
Preston
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Blackburn
Blackburn
E. Riis 43'
R. Brady 39'
S. Gallagher 23'
S. Szmodics 7'
2/17/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 33Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Preston35%
×Draw27%
Blackburn38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.20
Blackburn
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 13 away

creates per match

Preston
1.12
Blackburn
1.31

allows per match

Preston
1.21
Blackburn
1.27

finishing

Preston+0.15scores more
Blackburn-0.08on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Preston or draw
62%
Preston or Blackburn
73%
Draw or Blackburn
65%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
15%
Blackburn wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
70%
Preston 2+ goals
34%
Preston 3+ goals
12%
Blackburn 1+ goals
72%
Blackburn 2+ goals
36%
Blackburn 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
48%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.27 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.12 + Blackburn defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Blackburn attack 1.31 + Preston defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Preston scores more
35%
level
27%
Blackburn scores more
38%

Blackburn at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
S. GallagherBlackburnBlackburn · F
8.0

Match Events

7'
S. Szmodics↳ S. Gallagher
17'
J. Garrett← J. Fleck
23'
S. Gallagher↳ C. Brittain
39'
R. Brady↳ A. Hughes
43'
E. Riis
64'
B. Chrisene← R. Hedges
64'
A. Sigurðsson← T. Dolan
69'
L. Stewart← W. Keane
81'
A. McCann← R. Brady
82'
M. Osmajić← E. Riis

Possession

64%Preston

Shots

16Preston

Pass accuracy

56%Preston

Statistics

PrestonBlackburn
Overview
64%Possession36%
16Total Shots6
1.08Expected Goals (xG)0.80
7Corners3
10Fouls12
Shots
16Total Shots6
8On Target3
3Off Target1
5Blocked2
9Inside Box2
7Outside Box4
Passing
64%Possession36%
531Total Passes304
394Accurate Passes180
74%Pass Accuracy59%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
10Fouls12
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Preston vs Blackburn

Preston and Blackburn drew 2-2 in Championship on February 17, 2024.

Goals: S. Szmodics (7'), S. Gallagher (23'), R. Brady (39'), E. Riis (43').

Preston controlled possession (64%) and registered 16 shots to 6.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.