Blackburn 2–1 Preston: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Preston

T. Cantwell 78' (pen)

M. Gueye 39'

B. Potts 90+3'

1/31/2025

Championship · Round 30Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Blackburn46%

×Draw27%

Preston28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchPreston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.04

Blackburn

1.42

Preston

1.04

Blackburn creates 37% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 32 away

1.22

creates per match

1.11

0.96

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Blackburn

1.22

Preston

1.11

allows per match

Blackburn

0.96

Preston

1.61

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Blackburn-0.29scores less

Preston+0.08on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Preston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

72%

Blackburn or Preston

73%

Draw or Preston

54%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

22%

Preston wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

76%

Blackburn 2+ goals

41%

Blackburn 3+ goals

17%

Preston 1+ goals

65%

Preston 2+ goals

28%

Preston 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

62%

Preston (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.96 · 14 matches

Preston away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.61 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.22 + Preston defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.42

Preston attack 1.11 + Blackburn defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Blackburn scores more

46%

level

27%

Preston scores more

28%

Blackburn at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

D. Hyam

Blackburn · D

7.5

Match Events

30'

J. Whatmough← J. Storey

39'

M. Gueye↳ T. Dolan

63'

John Buckley

64'

S. Þórðarson← R. Ledson

64'

B. Potts← J. Meghoma

68'

T. Cantwell← A. Weimann

78'

T. CantwellPenalty

79'

D. Holmes← M. Frøkjær-Jensen

79'

C. Evans← S. Greenwood

82'

J. Rankin-Costello← L. Travis

90+9'

Jack Whatmough

90'

A. Forshaw← R. Hedges

90'

D. Sanderson← T. Dolan

90+3'

B. Potts↳ S. Þórðarson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnPreston

Overview

40%Possession60%

13Total Shots10

1.67Expected Goals (xG)0.93

7Corners3

13Fouls6

Shots

13Total Shots10

2On Target1

5Off Target6

6Blocked3

9Inside Box9

4Outside Box1

Passing

40%Possession60%

321Total Passes470

235Accurate Passes370

73%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

-0.62Goals Prevented-0.62

Discipline

13Fouls6

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2