Preston 0–0 Blackburn: Result & Stats

Preston

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Blackburn

9/22/2024

Championship · Round 6Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Preston33%

×Draw27%

Blackburn39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.29

Preston

1.16

Blackburn

1.29

Blackburn creates 11% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 15 away

1.04

creates per match

1.30

1.28

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Preston

1.04

Blackburn

1.30

allows per match

Preston

1.28

Blackburn

1.27

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

Preston+0.14scores more

Blackburn-0.17scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Preston or draw

61%

Preston or Blackburn

73%

Draw or Blackburn

67%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

14%

Blackburn wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

69%

Preston 2+ goals

32%

Preston 3+ goals

11%

Blackburn 1+ goals

72%

Blackburn 2+ goals

37%

Blackburn 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

46%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.28 · 38 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.04 + Blackburn defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.16

Blackburn attack 1.30 + Preston defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Preston scores more

33%

level

27%

Blackburn scores more

39%

Blackburn at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Pears

Blackburn · G

8.3

Match Events

7'

26'

42'

46'

47'

61'

63'

63'

K. Kesler-Hayden← M. Frøkjær-Jensen

63'

M. Osmajić← E. Riis

65'

A. Weimann← T. Dolan

77'

T. Cantwell← S. Tronstad

77'

A. Cozier-Duberry← R. Hedges

85'

86'

89'

89'

90+4'

90+5'

90'

H. Pickering← Y. Ohashi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonBlackburn

Overview

45%Possession55%

7Total Shots6

0.36Expected Goals (xG)0.80

3Corners4

10Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots6

5On Target3

1Off Target1

1Blocked2

4Inside Box2

3Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

355Total Passes438

264Accurate Passes350

74%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

1.43Goals Prevented1.43

Discipline

10Fouls16

4Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards1

5Offsides4