Preston 1–1 Blackburn: Result & Stats

Preston

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Blackburn

D. Hyam 90+4' (OG)

S. Szmodics 80'

4/22/2023

Championship · Round 44Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 59+ matches

Preston40%

×Draw28%

Blackburn32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.09

Preston

1.27

Blackburn

1.09

Preston creates 17% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 59 away

1.16

creates per match

1.01

1.18

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Preston

1.16

Blackburn

1.01

allows per match

Preston

1.18

Blackburn

1.38

+0.06on par

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Preston+0.06on par

Blackburn+0.06on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Preston or draw

68%

Preston or Blackburn

72%

Draw or Blackburn

60%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

18%

Blackburn wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

72%

Preston 2+ goals

36%

Preston 3+ goals

14%

Blackburn 1+ goals

66%

Blackburn 2+ goals

30%

Blackburn 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

56%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.18 · 60 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.16 + Blackburn defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Blackburn attack 1.01 + Preston defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Preston scores more

40%

level

28%

Blackburn scores more

32%

Preston at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

B. Whiteman

Preston · M

7.6

Match Events

46'

B. Brereton← T. Dolan

46'

R. Hedges← S. Thomas

59'

Daniel Johnson

60'

Sammie Szmodics

70'

A. McCann← D. Johnson

76'

B. Woodburn← P. Bauer

80'

S. Szmodics↳ L. Travis

83'

L. Delap← J. Onomah

85'

Joe Rankin-Costello

89'

S. Wharton← S. Szmodics

89'

C. Brittain← T. Morton

90+4'

D. HyamOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonBlackburn

Overview

45%Possession55%

13Total Shots9

4Corners3

13Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots9

4On Target3

3Off Target3

6Blocked3

6Inside Box7

7Outside Box2

Passing

45%Possession55%

341Total Passes430

226Accurate Passes318

66%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides5