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Portsmouth vs Derby — Championship 2025

Portsmouth
Portsmouth
Preview
18:45
Derby
Derby
9/1/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 4Fratton Park
46%
Portsmouth
model favours
46%26%28%

Portsmouth sit 18, Derby 8 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Portsmouth46%
×Draw26%
Derby28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portsmouth
1.44
Derby
1.06

Portsmouth creates 36% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 47 away

creates per match

Portsmouth
1.10
Derby
1.11

allows per match

Portsmouth
1.00
Derby
1.77

finishing

Portsmouth+0.00on par
Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw
72%
Portsmouth or Derby
74%
Draw or Derby
54%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+
22%
Derby wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals
76%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
42%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
18%
Derby 1+ goals
65%
Derby 2+ goals
29%
Derby 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)
62%
Derby (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.00 · 31 matches

Derby away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.77 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.10 + Derby defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.44

Derby attack 1.11 + Portsmouth defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Portsmouth scores more
46%
level
26%
Derby scores more
28%

Portsmouth at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Derby outscore their xG (1.4 vs 1.1 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Portsmouth
LWDWL
Derby
LWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Portsmouth host Derby

September 1, 2026: Portsmouth take on Derby in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Portsmouth host Derby at Fratton Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.