Derby 1–1 Portsmouth: Result & Stats | Championship

Derby

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Portsmouth

H. Matthews 45' (OG)

C. Lang 6'

12/20/2025

Championship · Round 22Pride Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Derby37%

×Draw30%

Portsmouth33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DerbyExpected goals in this matchPortsmouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.02

Derby

1.09

Portsmouth

1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 7 away

1.27

creates per match

0.97

1.08

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Derby

1.27

Portsmouth

0.97

allows per match

Derby

1.08

Portsmouth

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.46scores more than expected

finishing

Derby+0.00on par

Portsmouth+0.46scores more

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Portsmouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Derby or draw

67%

Derby or Portsmouth

70%

Draw or Portsmouth

63%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+

15%

Portsmouth wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals

66%

Derby 2+ goals

30%

Derby 3+ goals

10%

Portsmouth 1+ goals

64%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

27%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)

53%

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.08 · 30 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.91 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.27 + Portsmouth defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.09

Portsmouth attack 0.97 + Derby defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Derby scores more

37%

level

30%

Portsmouth scores more

33%

Derby at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

J. Ward

Derby · M

7.9

Match Events

6'

C. Lang↳ J. Murphy

42'

Andre Dozzell

44'

Rhian Brewster

45'

H. MatthewsOwn goal

53'

H. Blair← J. Murphy

66'

M. Pack← M. Kosznovszky

66'

A. Segecic← C. Chaplin

68'

A. Weimann← R. Brewster

77'

L. Salvesen← B. Brereton Diaz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DerbyPortsmouth

Overview

52%Possession48%

12Total Shots4

0.79Expected Goals (xG)0.15

6Corners4

7Fouls4

Shots

12Total Shots4

6On Target1

5Off Target2

1Blocked1

8Inside Box2

4Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

417Total Passes392

322Accurate Passes299

77%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

-0.44Goals Prevented-0.44

Discipline

7Fouls4

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1