Portsmouth 0–1 Derby: Result & Stats | Championship

Portsmouth

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Derby

S. Szmodics 8'

3/16/2026

Championship · Round 38Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Portsmouth47%

×Draw26%

Derby27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortsmouthExpected goals in this matchDerby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.07

Portsmouth

1.50

Derby

1.07

Portsmouth creates 40% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 29 away

1.64

creates per match

1.05

1.09

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Portsmouth

1.64

Derby

1.05

allows per match

Portsmouth

1.09

Derby

1.35

-0.97scores less than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Portsmouth-0.97scores less

Derby+0.19scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Derby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw

73%

Portsmouth or Derby

74%

Draw or Derby

53%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+

24%

Derby wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals

78%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

44%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

19%

Derby 1+ goals

66%

Derby 2+ goals

29%

Derby 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

64%

Derby (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.09 · 6 matches

Derby away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.35 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.64 + Derby defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.50

Derby attack 1.05 + Portsmouth defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Portsmouth scores more

47%

level

26%

Derby scores more

27%

Portsmouth at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

R. O'Donnell

Derby · G

8.9

Match Events

8'

40'

41'

53'

61'

O. Fraulo← R. Brewster

63'

J. Swift← C. Chaplin

63'

C. Shaughnessy← Z. Swanson

67'

John Swift

72'

C. Morris← P. Agyemang

72'

77'

77'

78'

83'

M. Kirk← J. Brown

83'

J. Banel← B. Brereton Diaz

83'

C. Forsyth← D. Murkin

86'

Bobby Clark

88'

Joe Ward

90+2'

Oscar Fraulo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortsmouthDerby

Overview

68%Possession32%

27Total Shots10

1.72Expected Goals (xG)1.00

11Corners3

14Fouls13

Shots

27Total Shots10

9On Target4

6Off Target4

12Blocked2

18Inside Box8

9Outside Box2

Passing

68%Possession32%

493Total Passes243

396Accurate Passes145

80%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

3Saves9

0.84Goals Prevented0.84

Discipline

14Fouls13

2Yellow Cards6

1Offsides2