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Portsmouth vs Derby — League One 2025

Portsmouth
Portsmouth
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Derby
Derby
O. Moxon 77'
A. Kamara 27'
J. Ward 35', 23'
4/2/2024League OneLeague One · Round 42Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Portsmouth25%
×Draw23%
Derby53%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portsmouth
1.22
Derby
1.89

Derby creates 55% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Portsmouth
1.33
Derby
1.11

allows per match

Portsmouth
2.67
Derby
1.11

finishing

Portsmouth+0.00on par
Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw
47%
Portsmouth or Derby
77%
Draw or Derby
75%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+
10%
Derby wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals
70%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
34%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
12%
Derby 1+ goals
85%
Derby 2+ goals
56%
Derby 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)
32%
Derby (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Derby away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.33 + Derby defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Derby attack 1.11 + Portsmouth defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Portsmouth scores more
25%
level
23%
Derby scores more
53%

Derby at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
J. WardDerbyDerby · M
8.2

Match Events

20'
Paddy Lane
23'
J. Ward↳ C. Blackett-Taylor
27'
A. Kamara↳ C. Bishop
35'
J. Ward↳ J. Collins
43'
James Collins
59'
O. Moxon← L. Evans
70'
K. Yengi← C. Saydee
70'
T. Anjorin← P. Lane
71'
L. Thompson← J. Ward
72'
Connor Ogilvie
77'
O. Moxon↳ S. Raggett
85'
C. Washington← C. Blackett-Taylor
90+1'
G. Whyte← A. Kamara
90+2'
C. Hourihane← K. Smith
90+2'
M. Waghorn← J. Collins

Possession

70%Portsmouth

Shots

10Portsmouth

Pass accuracy

57%Portsmouth

Statistics

PortsmouthDerby
Overview
70%Possession30%
10Total Shots12
6Corners0
13Fouls11
Shots
10Total Shots12
4On Target4
3Off Target6
3Blocked2
6Inside Box6
4Outside Box6
Passing
70%Possession30%
540Total Passes225
435Accurate Passes136
81%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls11
2Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: Portsmouth vs Derby

Portsmouth and Derby drew 2-2 in League One on April 2, 2024.

Goals: J. Ward (23', 35'), A. Kamara (27'), O. Moxon (77').

Portsmouth controlled possession (70%) and registered 10 shots to 12.

The match was played at Fratton Park in Portsmouth.