Derby 4–0 Portsmouth: Result & Stats | Championship

Derby

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Portsmouth

M. Pack 65' (OG)

E. Adams 29'

E. Cashin 23'

K. Wilson 8'

12/13/2024

Championship · Round 21Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Derby43%

×Draw29%

Portsmouth28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DerbyExpected goals in this matchPortsmouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.95

Derby

1.25

Portsmouth

0.95

Derby creates 32% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 16 away

1.26

creates per match

0.88

1.02

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Derby

1.26

Portsmouth

0.88

allows per match

Derby

1.02

Portsmouth

1.25

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

Derby+0.05on par

Portsmouth+0.31scores more

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Portsmouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Derby or draw

72%

Derby or Portsmouth

71%

Draw or Portsmouth

57%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+

19%

Portsmouth wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals

71%

Derby 2+ goals

36%

Derby 3+ goals

13%

Portsmouth 1+ goals

61%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

25%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)

61%

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.02 · 36 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.26 + Portsmouth defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Portsmouth attack 0.88 + Derby defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Derby scores more

43%

level

29%

Portsmouth scores more

28%

Derby at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

E. Cashin

Derby · D

8.2

Match Events

8'

K. Wilson↳ N. Mendez-Laing

23'

E. Cashin↳ K. Goudmijn

29'

E. Adams↳ C. Forsyth

46'

C. Saydee← M. Ritchie

46'

Z. Swanson← T. Devlin

58'

N. Phillips← E. Cashin

64'

A. Kamara← F. Potts

65'

M. PackOwn goal

66'

K. Jackson← M. Harness

66'

C. Elder← N. Mendez-Laing

72'

P. Lane← J. Murphy

77'

J. Collins← J. Yates

77'

L. Thompson← E. Adams

78'

E. Sørensen← C. Bishop

84'

Tom McIntyre

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DerbyPortsmouth

Overview

50%Possession50%

17Total Shots3

1.14Expected Goals (xG)0.60

5Corners3

8Fouls6

Shots

17Total Shots3

7On Target0

5Off Target2

5Blocked1

13Inside Box3

4Outside Box0

Passing

50%Possession50%

417Total Passes421

319Accurate Passes312

76%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

-3.09Goals Prevented-3.09

Discipline

8Fouls6

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1