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Portsmouth vs Bristol City — Championship 2025

Portsmouth
Portsmouth
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bristol City
Bristol City
A. Mehmeti 17'
11/29/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 18Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Portsmouth48%
×Draw26%
Bristol City26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portsmouth
1.50
Bristol City
1.04

Portsmouth creates 44% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 29 away

creates per match

Portsmouth
1.61
Bristol City
1.07

allows per match

Portsmouth
1.00
Bristol City
1.39

finishing

Portsmouth-0.70scores less
Bristol City-0.10scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw
74%
Portsmouth or Bristol City
74%
Draw or Bristol City
52%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+
24%
Bristol City wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals
78%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
44%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
19%
Bristol City 1+ goals
65%
Bristol City 2+ goals
28%
Bristol City 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)
65%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.39 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.61 + Bristol City defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.50

Bristol City attack 1.07 + Portsmouth defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Portsmouth scores more
48%
level
26%
Bristol City scores more
26%

Portsmouth at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
Neto BorgesBristol CityBristol City · M
8.3

Match Events

17'
A. Mehmeti↳ Neto Borges
31'
Andre Dozzell
49'
Regan Poole
52'
Josh Murphy
52'
M. Kosznovszky← A. Dozzell
62'
S. Armstrong← E. Riis
72'
M. Kirk← C. Lang
81'
J. Swift← J. Williams
81'
Yang Min-Hyuk← A. Segecic
82'
C. Chaplin← Z. Swanson
90+3'
Y. Hirakawa← S. Twine

Possession

50%Portsmouth

Shots

13Portsmouth

Pass accuracy

49%Portsmouth

Statistics

PortsmouthBristol
Overview
50%Possession50%
13Total Shots15
1.47Expected Goals (xG)1.60
4Corners4
11Fouls12
Shots
13Total Shots15
2On Target5
8Off Target3
3Blocked7
8Inside Box10
5Outside Box5
Passing
50%Possession50%
328Total Passes334
227Accurate Passes243
69%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
0.52Goals Prevented0.52
Discipline
11Fouls12
3Yellow Cards0
2Offsides6

Match Recap: Portsmouth vs Bristol City

Bristol City beat Portsmouth 1-0 in Championship on November 29, 2025.

Goals: A. Mehmeti (17').

Portsmouth controlled possession (50%) and registered 13 shots to 15.

The match was played at Fratton Park in Portsmouth.