Bristol City 3–0 Portsmouth: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Portsmouth

R. Dickie 35'

A. Mehmeti 32', 15'

12/29/2024

Championship · Round 24Ashton Gate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Bristol City41%

×Draw27%

Portsmouth31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchPortsmouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.10

Bristol City

1.31

Portsmouth

1.10

Bristol City creates 19% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 18 away

1.25

creates per match

0.85

1.36

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Bristol City

1.25

Portsmouth

0.85

allows per match

Bristol City

1.36

Portsmouth

1.36

-0.05on par

finishing

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

Bristol City-0.05on par

Portsmouth+0.26scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Portsmouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

69%

Bristol City or Portsmouth

73%

Draw or Portsmouth

59%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

19%

Portsmouth wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

73%

Bristol City 2+ goals

38%

Bristol City 3+ goals

14%

Portsmouth 1+ goals

67%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

30%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

57%

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.36 · 35 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.36 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.25 + Portsmouth defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Portsmouth attack 0.85 + Bristol City defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bristol City scores more

41%

level

27%

Portsmouth scores more

31%

Bristol City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Mehmeti

Bristol City · F

8.5

Match Events

15'

32'

35'

55'

60'

G. Tanner← R. McCrorie

60'

S. Bell← N. Wells

64'

C. Lang← M. Ritchie

64'

J. Murphy← S. Silvera

64'

67'

70'

81'

84'

85'

Y. Hirakawa← A. Mehmeti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolPortsmouth

Overview

44%Possession56%

20Total Shots5

3.06Expected Goals (xG)0.20

10Corners4

11Fouls10

Shots

20Total Shots5

7On Target2

7Off Target2

6Blocked1

17Inside Box2

3Outside Box3

Passing

44%Possession56%

352Total Passes465

242Accurate Passes356

69%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

0.44Goals Prevented0.44

Discipline

11Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

4Offsides1

Match Recap: Bristol City vs Portsmouth

Bristol City beat Portsmouth 3-0 in Championship on December 29, 2024.

Goals: A. Mehmeti (15', 32'), R. Dickie (35').

Portsmouth controlled possession (56%) and registered 5 shots to 20.

The match was played at Ashton Gate Stadium in Bristol.

Bristol City vs Portsmouth — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Bristol City vs Portsmouth