Portsmouth 3–0 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Portsmouth

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bristol City

C. Lang 71'

J. Murphy 62'

C. Bishop 20'

12/7/2024

Championship · Round 19Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Portsmouth51%

×Draw25%

Bristol City24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortsmouthExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.00

Portsmouth

1.57

Bristol City

1.00

Portsmouth creates 57% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 38 away

1.75

creates per match

1.05

0.95

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Portsmouth

1.75

Bristol City

1.05

allows per match

Portsmouth

0.95

Bristol City

1.39

-0.46scores less than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Portsmouth-0.46scores less

Bristol City-0.02on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw

76%

Portsmouth or Bristol City

75%

Draw or Bristol City

49%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+

26%

Bristol City wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals

79%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

46%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

21%

Bristol City 1+ goals

63%

Bristol City 2+ goals

26%

Bristol City 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

68%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.95 · 14 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.75 + Bristol City defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.57

Bristol City attack 1.05 + Portsmouth defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Portsmouth scores more

51%

level

25%

Bristol City scores more

24%

Portsmouth at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

C. Bishop

Portsmouth · F

8.9

Match Events

8'

12'

20'

41'

60'

G. Earthy← M. McGuane

60'

S. Armstrong← N. Wells

62'

67'

67'

71'

78'

Z. Swanson← C. Bishop

80'

80'

83'

86'

88'

E. Sørensen← J. Murphy

90+2'

Sinclair Armstrong

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortsmouthBristol

Overview

45%Possession55%

13Total Shots11

2.44Expected Goals (xG)1.22

6Corners7

14Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots11

8On Target2

2Off Target4

3Blocked5

10Inside Box8

3Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

292Total Passes362

181Accurate Passes239

62%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

0.59Goals Prevented0.59

Discipline

14Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

4Offsides2

Match Recap: Portsmouth vs Bristol City

Portsmouth beat Bristol City 3-0 in Championship on December 7, 2024.

Goals: C. Bishop (20'), J. Murphy (62'), C. Lang (71').

Bristol City controlled possession (55%) and registered 11 shots to 13.

The match was played at Fratton Park in Portsmouth.

Portsmouth vs Bristol City — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Portsmouth vs Bristol City