Bristol City 5–0 Portsmouth: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Portsmouth

S. Armstrong 90', 59'

S. Twine 50'

A. Mehmeti 24'

A. Randell 11'

1/1/2026

Championship · Round 25Ashton Gate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Bristol City39%

×Draw28%

Portsmouth33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchPortsmouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.13

Bristol City

1.25

Portsmouth

1.13

Bristol City creates 11% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 11 away

1.13

creates per match

0.89

1.37

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Bristol City

1.13

Portsmouth

0.89

allows per match

Bristol City

1.37

Portsmouth

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

Bristol City+0.00on par

Portsmouth+0.29scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Portsmouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

67%

Bristol City or Portsmouth

72%

Draw or Portsmouth

61%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

17%

Portsmouth wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

71%

Bristol City 2+ goals

36%

Bristol City 3+ goals

13%

Portsmouth 1+ goals

68%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

31%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

54%

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.37 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.13 + Portsmouth defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.25

Portsmouth attack 0.89 + Bristol City defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bristol City scores more

39%

level

28%

Portsmouth scores more

33%

Bristol City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

A. Randell

Bristol City · M

8.5

Match Events

11'

A. Randell

22'

Luke Le Roux

24'

A. Mehmeti↳ J. Knight

46'

H. Blair← L. Le Roux

50'

S. Twine

56'

Y. Hirakawa← R. McCrorie

56'

S. Bell← S. Twine

56'

S. Armstrong← E. Riis

59'

S. Armstrong↳ S. Bell

62'

J. Williams← Z. Swanson

62'

H. Matthews← C. Shaughnessy

62'

C. Chaplin← T. Devlin

63'

C. Pring← R. Atkinson

74'

O. Singerr← M. Kirk

78'

L. Pecover← J. Knight

90'

S. Armstrong↳ Y. Hirakawa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolPortsmouth

Overview

62%Possession38%

14Total Shots5

1.51Expected Goals (xG)0.42

1Corners1

6Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots5

7On Target2

5Off Target2

2Blocked1

8Inside Box3

6Outside Box2

Passing

62%Possession38%

644Total Passes384

563Accurate Passes295

87%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

-1.72Goals Prevented-1.72

Discipline

6Fouls14

0Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1

Championship: Bristol City 5–0 Portsmouth

Bristol City beat Portsmouth 5-0 in Championship on January 1, 2026.

Goals: A. Randell (11'), A. Mehmeti (24'), S. Twine (50'), S. Armstrong (59', 90').

Bristol City controlled possession (62%) and registered 14 shots to 5.

The match was played at Ashton Gate Stadium in Bristol.

Bristol City vs Portsmouth — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Bristol City 5–0 Portsmouth