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Portland Thorns W vs Bay FC W — NWSL Women 2025

Portland Thorns W
Portland Thorns W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bay FC W
Bay FC W
O. Moultrie 69', 51'
T. Huff 36'
10/5/2025NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 23Providence Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Portland Thorns W56%
×Draw23%
Bay FC W21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portland Thorns W
1.76
Bay FC W
0.97

Portland Thorns W creates 81% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 29 away

creates per match

Portland Thorns W
1.83
Bay FC W
1.17

allows per match

Portland Thorns W
0.78
Bay FC W
1.69

finishing

Portland Thorns W+0.00on par
Bay FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Thorns W ↓

Bay FC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Portland Thorns W or draw
79%
Portland Thorns W or Bay FC W
77%
Draw or Bay FC W
44%

Winning margin

Portland Thorns W wins by 2+
31%
Bay FC W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Portland Thorns W 1+ goals
83%
Portland Thorns W 2+ goals
52%
Portland Thorns W 3+ goals
26%
Bay FC W 1+ goals
62%
Bay FC W 2+ goals
25%
Bay FC W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Portland Thorns W (draw refunded)
73%
Bay FC W (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Thorns W at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.78 · 23 matches

Bay FC W away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.69 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Thorns W attack 1.83 + Bay FC W defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.76

Bay FC W attack 1.17 + Portland Thorns W defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Portland Thorns W scores more
56%
level
23%
Bay FC W scores more
21%

Portland Thorns W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Portland Thorns W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
O. MoultriePortland Thorns WPortland Thorns W · M
8.7

Match Events

36'
T. Huff↳ K. Lema
51'
O. Moultrie↳ S. Coffey
61'
V. Loboa← P. Tordin
62'
M. Alidou d'Anjou← A. Spaanstra
62'
P. Hocking← R. Hill
68'
Penelope Hocking
69'
O. Moultrie
72'
K. Torpey← M. Vignola
76'
C. Conti← K. Lema
76'
C. Paulson← T. Boade
81'
M. Moreau← T. Huff
90+1'
M. Mckenzie← R. Turner

Possession

49%Portland

Shots

6Portland

Pass accuracy

50%Portland

Statistics

PortlandBay
Overview
49%Possession51%
6Total Shots9
3Corners6
8Fouls12
Shots
6Total Shots9
3On Target2
2Off Target2
1Blocked5
4Inside Box7
2Outside Box2
Passing
49%Possession51%
428Total Passes446
343Accurate Passes355
80%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls12
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Portland Thorns W vs Bay FC W

Portland Thorns W beat Bay FC W 2-1 in NWSL Women on October 5, 2025.

Goals: T. Huff (36'), O. Moultrie (51', 69').

Bay FC W controlled possession (51%) and registered 9 shots to 6.

The match was played at Providence Park in Portland.