Bay FC W 1–0 Portland Thorns W: Result & Stats

Bay FC W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Portland Thorns W

A. Malonson 39'

6/7/2025

NWSL Women · Round 11PayPal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Bay FC W38%

×Draw27%

Portland Thorns W35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bay FC WExpected goals in this matchPortland Thorns W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.24

Bay FC W

1.29

Portland Thorns W

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 26 away

1.04

creates per match

1.04

1.44

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Bay FC W

1.04

Portland Thorns W

1.04

allows per match

Bay FC W

1.44

Portland Thorns W

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bay FC W+0.00on par

Portland Thorns W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bay FC W ↓

Portland Thorns W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bay FC W or draw

65%

Bay FC W or Portland Thorns W

73%

Draw or Portland Thorns W

62%

Winning margin

Bay FC W wins by 2+

17%

Portland Thorns W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bay FC W 1+ goals

72%

Bay FC W 2+ goals

37%

Bay FC W 3+ goals

14%

Portland Thorns W 1+ goals

71%

Portland Thorns W 2+ goals

35%

Portland Thorns W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Bay FC W (draw refunded)

52%

Portland Thorns W (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bay FC W at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.44 · 25 matches

Portland Thorns W away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bay FC W attack 1.04 + Portland Thorns W defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.29

Portland Thorns W attack 1.04 + Bay FC W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bay FC W scores more

38%

level

27%

Portland Thorns W scores more

35%

Bay FC W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bay FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

C. Dydasco

Bay FC W · D

7.3

Match Events

26'

K. Hubly← J. Brewster

39'

A. Malonson↳ P. Hocking

46'

P. Tordin← P. Linnehan

63'

R. Turner← M. Alidou d'Anjou

71'

R. Kundananji← A. Oshoala

71'

D. Bailey← T. Huff

71'

K. Pickett← H. Bebar

78'

T. Boade← P. Hocking

78'

J. Fleming← K. Torpey

84'

A. Spaanstra← C. Hanks

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BayPortland

Overview

54%Possession46%

1Total Shots5

0Corners4

4Fouls4

Shots

1Total Shots5

0On Target1

1Off Target2

0Blocked2

1Inside Box4

0Outside Box1

Passing

54%Possession46%

107Total Passes84

83Accurate Passes66

78%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

4Fouls4

0Offsides1