Portland Thorns W 1–3 Bay FC W: Result & Stats

Portland Thorns W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Bay FC W

S. Smith 32'

J. Anderson 70'

R. Hill 18'

A. Dahlkemper 7'

8/31/2024

NWSL Women · Round 13Providence Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Portland Thorns W56%

×Draw23%

Bay FC W21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portland Thorns WExpected goals in this matchBay FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.97

Portland Thorns W

1.76

Bay FC W

0.97

Portland Thorns W creates 81% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 29 away

1.83

creates per match

1.17

0.78

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Portland Thorns W

1.83

Bay FC W

1.17

allows per match

Portland Thorns W

0.78

Bay FC W

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portland Thorns W+0.00on par

Bay FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Thorns W ↓

Bay FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Portland Thorns W or draw

79%

Portland Thorns W or Bay FC W

77%

Draw or Bay FC W

44%

Winning margin

Portland Thorns W wins by 2+

31%

Bay FC W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Portland Thorns W 1+ goals

83%

Portland Thorns W 2+ goals

52%

Portland Thorns W 3+ goals

26%

Bay FC W 1+ goals

62%

Bay FC W 2+ goals

25%

Bay FC W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Portland Thorns W (draw refunded)

73%

Bay FC W (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Thorns W at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.78 · 23 matches

Bay FC W away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.69 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Thorns W attack 1.83 + Bay FC W defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.76

Bay FC W attack 1.17 + Portland Thorns W defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Portland Thorns W scores more

56%

level

23%

Bay FC W scores more

21%

Portland Thorns W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Portland Thorns W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

R. Hill

Bay FC W · F

8.0

Match Events

7'

A. Dahlkemper↳ D. Bailey

18'

R. Hill↳ R. Kundananji

32'

S. Smith

35'

Dorian Bailey

57'

R. Turner← S. Smith

65'

J. Anderson← D. Bailey

70'

J. Anderson↳ R. Hill

73'

Racheal Kundananji

76'

B. Sauerbrunn← S. Coffey

76'

P. Linnehan← A. Spaanstra

76'

M. Müller← I. Obaze

83'

Jessie Fleming

85'

M. Klingenberg← J. Fleming

90'

M. Moreau← R. Kundananji

90+10'

C. Conti← T. Boade

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortlandBay

Overview

54%Possession46%

10Total Shots11

7Corners2

7Fouls18

Shots

10Total Shots11

5On Target6

2Off Target2

3Blocked3

4Inside Box7

6Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

441Total Passes368

348Accurate Passes287

79%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls18

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3