Bay FC W 2–3 Portland Thorns W: Result & Stats

Bay FC W

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Portland Thorns W

D. Castellanos 60'

R. Kundananji 41'

S. Smith 78', 7'

P. Linnehan 2'

5/2/2024

NWSL Women · Round 6PayPal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Bay FC W36%

×Draw27%

Portland Thorns W37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bay FC WExpected goals in this matchPortland Thorns W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.28

Bay FC W

1.27

Portland Thorns W

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 27 away

0.97

creates per match

1.11

1.45

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Bay FC W

0.97

Portland Thorns W

1.11

allows per match

Bay FC W

1.45

Portland Thorns W

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bay FC W+0.00on par

Portland Thorns W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bay FC W ↓

Portland Thorns W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bay FC W or draw

63%

Bay FC W or Portland Thorns W

73%

Draw or Portland Thorns W

64%

Winning margin

Bay FC W wins by 2+

16%

Portland Thorns W wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Bay FC W 1+ goals

72%

Bay FC W 2+ goals

36%

Bay FC W 3+ goals

14%

Portland Thorns W 1+ goals

72%

Portland Thorns W 2+ goals

37%

Portland Thorns W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bay FC W (draw refunded)

50%

Portland Thorns W (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bay FC W at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

Portland Thorns W away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bay FC W attack 0.97 + Portland Thorns W defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.27

Portland Thorns W attack 1.11 + Bay FC W defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bay FC W scores more

36%

level

27%

Portland Thorns W scores more

37%

Portland Thorns W at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Portland Thorns W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

S. Smith

Portland Thorns W · F

8.9

Match Events

2'

P. Linnehan↳ S. Smith

7'

S. Smith↳ P. Linnehan

41'

R. Kundananji↳ J. Anderson

45+6'

Payton Linnehan

46'

T. Boade← D. Bailey

46'

M. Müller← M. Klingenberg

60'

D. Castellanos↳ R. Kundananji

62'

M. Weaver← P. Linnehan

62'

I. Obaze← B. Sauerbrunn

76'

M. Doms← J. Anderson

76'

K. Sharples← J. Beattie

76'

76'

78'

83'

90+1'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BayPortland

Overview

53%Possession47%

18Total Shots9

9Corners2

10Fouls10

Shots

18Total Shots9

5On Target5

8Off Target3

5Blocked1

9Inside Box7

9Outside Box2

Passing

53%Possession47%

494Total Passes443

409Accurate Passes355

83%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls10

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1

NWSL Women: Bay FC W 2–3 Portland Thorns W

Portland Thorns W beat Bay FC W 3-2 in NWSL Women on May 2, 2024.

Goals: P. Linnehan (2'), S. Smith (7', 78'), R. Kundananji (41'), D. Castellanos (60').

Bay FC W controlled possession (53%) and registered 18 shots to 9.

The match was played at PayPal Park in San Jose, California.

Bay FC W vs Portland Thorns W — NWSL Women 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NWSL Women: Bay FC W 2–3 Portland Thorns W