Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Port Vale vs Cheltenham — League Two 2025

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cheltenham
Cheltenham
1/1/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 24Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Port Vale53%
×Draw23%
Cheltenham24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.85
Cheltenham
1.16

Port Vale creates 59% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 27 away

creates per match

Port Vale
1.66
Cheltenham
1.22

allows per match

Port Vale
1.09
Cheltenham
2.04

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Cheltenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
76%
Port Vale or Cheltenham
77%
Draw or Cheltenham
47%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
30%
Cheltenham wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
84%
Port Vale 2+ goals
55%
Port Vale 3+ goals
28%
Cheltenham 1+ goals
69%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
32%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
69%
Cheltenham (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.09 · 35 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 1.66 + Cheltenham defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.85

Cheltenham attack 1.22 + Port Vale defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Port Vale scores more
53%
level
23%
Cheltenham scores more
24%

Port Vale at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
S. StubbsCheltenhamCheltenham · D
8.2

Match Events

12'
Connor Hall
57'
Scot Bennett
62'
E. Chislett← B. Garrity
62'
A. Hackford← L. Tolaj
66'
M. Taylor← R. Bowman
66'
A. Jude-Boyd← S. Bennett
82'
S. Hart← N. Smith
86'
R. Paton← R. Curtis
86'
L. Dulson← E. Archer
90+4'
Ryan Croasdale

Possession

51%Port

Shots

16Port

Pass accuracy

50%Port

Statistics

PortCheltenham
Overview
51%Possession49%
16Total Shots13
6Corners6
14Fouls9
Shots
16Total Shots13
4On Target4
7Off Target5
5Blocked4
7Inside Box6
9Outside Box7
Passing
51%Possession49%
268Total Passes262
161Accurate Passes161
60%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
14Fouls9
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Port Vale vs Cheltenham

Port Vale and Cheltenham drew 0-0 in League Two on January 1, 2025.

Port Vale controlled possession (51%) and registered 16 shots to 13.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.