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Cheltenham vs Port Vale — League Two 2025

Cheltenham
Cheltenham
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Port Vale
Port Vale
G. Miller 53'
R. Curtis 90+4'
12/3/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 18EV Charger Points Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Cheltenham33%
×Draw26%
Port Vale41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheltenham
1.26
Port Vale
1.42

Port Vale creates 13% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 36 away

creates per match

Cheltenham
1.33
Port Vale
1.42

allows per match

Cheltenham
1.41
Port Vale
1.19

finishing

Cheltenham+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw
59%
Cheltenham or Port Vale
74%
Draw or Port Vale
67%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+
14%
Port Vale wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals
72%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
36%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
13%
Port Vale 1+ goals
76%
Port Vale 2+ goals
41%
Port Vale 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)
45%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.33 + Port Vale defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.26

Port Vale attack 1.42 + Cheltenham defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cheltenham scores more
33%
level
26%
Port Vale scores more
41%

Port Vale at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
R. CurtisPort ValePort Vale · F
7.7

Match Events

11'
Ben Heneghan
53'
G. Miller
62'
S. Hart← N. Smith
62'
R. Richards← L. Tolaj
62'
R. Curtis← C. Grant
69'
Ibrahim Bakare
70'
R. Paton← K. John
78'
M. Taylor← G. Miller
78'
T. Pett← E. Archer
78'
B. Baker-Boaitey← J. Stockley
85'
Ryan Croasdale
90+5'
Joe Day
90+1'
L. Laing← J. Colwill
90+4'
R. Curtis↳ R. Paton

Possession

37%Cheltenham

Shots

9Cheltenham

Pass accuracy

44%Cheltenham

Statistics

CheltenhamPort
Overview
37%Possession63%
9Total Shots15
5Corners8
9Fouls7
Shots
9Total Shots15
4On Target4
3Off Target6
2Blocked5
7Inside Box11
2Outside Box4
Passing
37%Possession63%
241Total Passes404
144Accurate Passes313
60%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls7
2Yellow Cards2

Match Recap: Cheltenham vs Port Vale

Cheltenham and Port Vale drew 1-1 in League Two on December 3, 2024.

Goals: G. Miller (53'), R. Curtis (90+4').

Port Vale controlled possession (63%) and registered 15 shots to 9.

The match was played at EV Charger Points Stadium in Cheltenham, Gloucestershire.