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Cheltenham vs Port Vale — League One 2025

Cheltenham
Cheltenham
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Port Vale
Port Vale
W. Ferry 73'
J. Shepherd 69'
M. Taylor 45+2'
C. Davies 65' (OG)
N. Smith 25'
2/17/2024League OneLeague One · Round 34Completely-Suzuki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cheltenham47%
×Draw27%
Port Vale26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheltenham
1.41
Port Vale
0.96

Cheltenham creates 47% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 46 away

creates per match

Cheltenham
1.20
Port Vale
0.72

allows per match

Cheltenham
1.20
Port Vale
1.61

finishing

Cheltenham+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw
74%
Cheltenham or Port Vale
73%
Draw or Port Vale
53%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+
23%
Port Vale wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals
76%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
41%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
17%
Port Vale 1+ goals
62%
Port Vale 2+ goals
25%
Port Vale 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)
65%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Port Vale away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.61 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.20 + Port Vale defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.41

Port Vale attack 0.72 + Cheltenham defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cheltenham scores more
47%
level
27%
Port Vale scores more
26%

Cheltenham at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
E. ChislettPort ValePort Vale · F
7.9

Match Events

25'
N. Smith↳ C. Grant
45+7'
Connor Ripley
45+2'
M. Taylor↳ T. Pett
52'
Funso Ojo
63'
Ryan Loft
65'
C. DaviesOwn goal
67'
J. Weir← F. Ojo
67'
B. Dipepa← J. Wilson
69'
J. Shepherd
73'
W. Ferry↳ L. Southwood
75'
A. Keena← M. Taylor
75'
E. Bonds← L. Sercombe
79'
Tom Pett
82'
A. Mighten← C. Grant
87'
R. Walters← D. Jones
90+6'
J. Nuttall← G. Lloyd

Possession

52%Cheltenham

Shots

16Cheltenham

Pass accuracy

50%Cheltenham

Statistics

CheltenhamPort
Overview
52%Possession48%
16Total Shots6
7Corners2
10Fouls19
Shots
16Total Shots6
7On Target4
4Off Target1
5Blocked1
12Inside Box5
4Outside Box1
Passing
52%Possession48%
325Total Passes322
192Accurate Passes189
59%Pass Accuracy59%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls19
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Cheltenham vs Port Vale

Cheltenham beat Port Vale 3-2 in League One on February 17, 2024.

Goals: N. Smith (25'), M. Taylor (45+2'), C. Davies (65' o.g.), J. Shepherd (69'), W. Ferry (73').

Cheltenham controlled possession (52%) and registered 16 shots to 6.

The match was played at Completely-Suzuki Stadium in Cheltenham, Gloucestershire.