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Port Vale vs Cheltenham — League One 2025

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Cheltenham
Cheltenham
A. Devine 32'
S. Long 66', 42'
10/28/2023League OneLeague One · Round 16Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Port Vale30%
×Draw32%
Cheltenham38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
0.85
Cheltenham
0.99

Cheltenham creates 16% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 4 away

creates per match

Port Vale
0.96
Cheltenham
0.75

allows per match

Port Vale
1.24
Cheltenham
0.75

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Cheltenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
62%
Port Vale or Cheltenham
68%
Draw or Cheltenham
70%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
10%
Cheltenham wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
57%
Port Vale 2+ goals
21%
Port Vale 3+ goals
5%
Cheltenham 1+ goals
63%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
26%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
44%
Cheltenham (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 0.96 + Cheltenham defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.85

Cheltenham attack 0.75 + Port Vale defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Port Vale scores more
30%
level
32%
Cheltenham scores more
38%

Cheltenham at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
S. LongCheltenhamCheltenham · M
8.6

Match Events

31'
Will Ferry
32'
A. Devine↳ N. Smith
34'
Curtis Davies
42'
S. Long
45+4'
Ben Williams
55'
N. Butler-Oyedeji← W. Ferry
55'
L. Sercombe← C. Thompson
59'
Will Goodwin
63'
U. Ikpeazu← R. Loft
63'
A. Keena← G. Lloyd
66'
Jesse Debrah
66'
S. Long
76'
T. Bradbury← R. Street
79'
G. Massey← J. Plant
79'
O. Arblaster← E. Chislett
90+1'
Josh Thomas

Possession

68%Port

Shots

16Port

Pass accuracy

62%Port

Statistics

PortCheltenham
Overview
68%Possession32%
16Total Shots9
11Corners7
12Fouls19
Shots
16Total Shots9
5On Target3
6Off Target4
5Blocked2
7Inside Box8
9Outside Box1
Passing
68%Possession32%
415Total Passes196
305Accurate Passes89
73%Pass Accuracy45%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls19
2Yellow Cards4
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Port Vale vs Cheltenham

Cheltenham beat Port Vale 2-1 in League One on October 28, 2023.

Goals: A. Devine (32'), S. Long (42', 66').

Port Vale controlled possession (68%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.