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Port Vale vs Bradford — League One 2025

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Bradford
Bradford
T. Wright 66'
B. Pointon 31'
3/11/2026League OneLeague One · Round 19Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Port Vale38%
×Draw28%
Bradford34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.18
Bradford
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 27 away

creates per match

Port Vale
0.92
Bradford
1.11

allows per match

Port Vale
1.11
Bradford
1.44

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Bradford+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Bradford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
66%
Port Vale or Bradford
72%
Draw or Bradford
62%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
16%
Bradford wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
69%
Port Vale 2+ goals
33%
Port Vale 3+ goals
12%
Bradford 1+ goals
67%
Bradford 2+ goals
30%
Bradford 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
52%
Bradford (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

Bradford away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 0.92 + Bradford defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.18

Bradford attack 1.11 + Port Vale defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Port Vale scores more
38%
level
28%
Bradford scores more
34%

Port Vale at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

46
J. GauciPort ValePort Vale · G
8.0

Match Events

31'
B. Pointon
46'
G. Ward← F. Ojo
46'
E. Archer← B. Waine
46'
J. Shipley← R. Walters
51'
Max Power
61'
Elijah Campbell
61'
L. Gordon← T. Magloire
66'
T. Wright↳ B. Pointon
70'
P. Mullin← E. Wheatley
70'
W. Swan← A. Sarcevic
70'
S. Humphrys← B. Pointon
80'
H. Ashby← J. Neufville
84'
D. Brown← A. Gray
85'
Connor Hall
90'
Tyreik Wright

Possession

46%Port

Shots

7Port

Pass accuracy

46%Port

Statistics

PortBradford
Overview
46%Possession54%
7Total Shots33
2Corners11
8Fouls13
Shots
7Total Shots33
1On Target13
3Off Target8
3Blocked12
2Inside Box20
5Outside Box13
Passing
46%Possession54%
313Total Passes358
182Accurate Passes243
58%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
11Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls13
2Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

League One: Port Vale 0–2 Bradford

Bradford beat Port Vale 2-0 in League One on March 11, 2026.

Goals: B. Pointon (31'), T. Wright (66').

Bradford controlled possession (54%) and registered 33 shots to 7.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke on Trent.