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Bradford vs Port Vale — League Two 2025

Bradford
Bradford
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Port Vale
Port Vale
C. Vernam 70'
J. Wilson 63'
B. Garrity 50'
3/19/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 38The Utilita Energy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bradford41%
×Draw28%
Port Vale32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bradford
1.29
Port Vale
1.11

Bradford creates 16% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 36 away

creates per match

Bradford
1.40
Port Vale
1.42

allows per match

Bradford
0.80
Port Vale
1.19

finishing

Bradford+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bradford ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bradford or draw
68%
Bradford or Port Vale
72%
Draw or Port Vale
59%

Winning margin

Bradford wins by 2+
18%
Port Vale wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bradford 1+ goals
72%
Bradford 2+ goals
37%
Bradford 3+ goals
14%
Port Vale 1+ goals
67%
Port Vale 2+ goals
30%
Port Vale 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bradford (draw refunded)
56%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bradford at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bradford attack 1.40 + Port Vale defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

Port Vale attack 1.42 + Bradford defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bradford scores more
41%
level
28%
Port Vale scores more
32%

Bradford at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bradford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
J. WilsonPort ValePort Vale · F
7.9

Match Events

22'
Harry Charsley
40'
Brad Walker
50'
B. Garrity
63'
J. Wilson↳ T. Pett
68'
J. Walker← N. Delfouneso
69'
C. Vernam← L. Sutton
70'
C. Vernam
72'
Malvind Benning
73'
Jamie Walker
76'
K. Harratt← J. Wilson
78'
Nathan Smith
85'
D. Amoo← J. Proctor
90+4'
R. Edmondson← H. Charsley

Possession

57%Bradford

Shots

9Bradford

Pass accuracy

53%Bradford

Statistics

BradfordPort
Overview
57%Possession43%
9Total Shots13
4Corners5
6Fouls14
Shots
9Total Shots13
1On Target4
4Off Target3
4Blocked6
7Inside Box9
2Outside Box4
Passing
57%Possession43%
451Total Passes339
285Accurate Passes192
63%Pass Accuracy57%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
6Fouls14
1Yellow Cards4
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Bradford vs Port Vale

Port Vale beat Bradford 2-1 in League Two on March 19, 2022.

Goals: B. Garrity (50'), J. Wilson (63'), C. Vernam (70').

Bradford controlled possession (57%) and registered 9 shots to 13.

The match was played at The Utilita Energy Stadium in Bradford, West Yorkshire.