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Port Vale vs Bradford — League Two 2025

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Bradford
Bradford
M. Clark 32'
L. Tolaj 11'
4/1/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 40Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Port Vale43%
×Draw28%
Bradford29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.33
Bradford
1.04

Port Vale creates 28% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 4 away

creates per match

Port Vale
1.66
Bradford
1.00

allows per match

Port Vale
1.09
Bradford
1.00

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Bradford+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Bradford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
71%
Port Vale or Bradford
72%
Draw or Bradford
57%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
20%
Bradford wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
74%
Port Vale 2+ goals
38%
Port Vale 3+ goals
15%
Bradford 1+ goals
65%
Bradford 2+ goals
28%
Bradford 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
60%
Bradford (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.09 · 35 matches

Bradford away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 1.66 + Bradford defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bradford attack 1.00 + Port Vale defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Port Vale scores more
43%
level
28%
Bradford scores more
29%

Port Vale at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
B. AmosPort ValePort Vale · G
8.2

Match Events

11'
L. Tolaj↳ R. Croasdale
21'
Brad Halliday
32'
M. Clark↳ J. Shorrock
46'
B. Pointon← T. Adaramola
46'
J. Shepherd← P. Huntington
59'
S. Hart← J. Shorrock
67'
Aden Baldwin
70'
E. Chislett← R. Walters
71'
M. Mellon← G. Lapslie
84'
J. Walker← B. Halliday
85'
R. Curtis← J. Stockley
86'
Lorent Tolaj
89'
Richard SmallwoodMissed penalty
89'
Richard Smallwood
90+2'
Michael Mellon

Possession

41%Port

Shots

9Port

Pass accuracy

47%Port

Statistics

PortBradford
Overview
41%Possession59%
9Total Shots11
1Corners2
20Fouls14
Shots
9Total Shots11
6On Target3
2Off Target4
1Blocked4
5Inside Box9
4Outside Box2
Passing
41%Possession59%
293Total Passes431
190Accurate Passes313
65%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
20Fouls14
1Yellow Cards4

Match Recap: Port Vale vs Bradford

Port Vale beat Bradford 2-0 in League Two on April 1, 2025.

Goals: L. Tolaj (11'), M. Clark (32').

Bradford controlled possession (59%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.