Bradford 1–0 Port Vale: Result & Stats | League One

Bradford

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Port Vale

J. Metcalfe 67'

12/29/2025

League One · Round 23Valley Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Bradford52%

×Draw28%

Port Vale20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BradfordExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.73

Bradford

1.37

Port Vale

0.73

Bradford creates 88% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 35 away

1.14

creates per match

0.66

0.79

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Bradford

1.14

Port Vale

0.66

allows per match

Bradford

0.79

Port Vale

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bradford+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bradford ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Bradford or draw

80%

Bradford or Port Vale

72%

Draw or Port Vale

48%

Winning margin

Bradford wins by 2+

25%

Port Vale wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Bradford 1+ goals

75%

Bradford 2+ goals

40%

Bradford 3+ goals

16%

Port Vale 1+ goals

52%

Port Vale 2+ goals

17%

Port Vale 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Bradford (draw refunded)

72%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bradford at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

Port Vale away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bradford attack 1.14 + Port Vale defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.37

Port Vale attack 0.66 + Bradford defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bradford scores more

52%

level

28%

Port Vale scores more

20%

Bradford at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bradford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

B. Heneghan

Port Vale · D

7.6

Match Events

12'

14'

49'

54'

67'

J. Metcalfe↳ M. Power

77'

78'

88'

90+8'

90+5'

90+11'

T. McIntyre← T. Wright

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BradfordPort

Overview

56%Possession44%

15Total Shots7

11Corners3

6Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots7

2On Target1

4Off Target4

9Blocked2

8Inside Box4

7Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

375Total Passes306

234Accurate Passes158

62%Pass Accuracy52%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

6Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0