Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Port Vale vs Barnsley — League One 2018

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Barnsley
Barnsley
12/26/2023League OneLeague One · Round 24Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Port Vale30%
×Draw26%
Barnsley44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.14
Barnsley
1.44

Barnsley creates 26% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 118 away

creates per match

Port Vale
0.97
Barnsley
1.59

allows per match

Port Vale
1.29
Barnsley
1.31

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Barnsley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
56%
Port Vale or Barnsley
74%
Draw or Barnsley
70%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
12%
Barnsley wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
68%
Port Vale 2+ goals
32%
Port Vale 3+ goals
11%
Barnsley 1+ goals
76%
Barnsley 2+ goals
42%
Barnsley 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
41%
Barnsley (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.29 · 72 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.31 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 0.97 + Barnsley defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.14

Barnsley attack 1.59 + Port Vale defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Port Vale scores more
30%
level
26%
Barnsley scores more
44%

Barnsley at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Port Vale vs Barnsley

Barnsley beat Port Vale 3-2 in League One on December 26, 2023.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.