Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Port Vale vs Barnsley — League One 2025

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Barnsley
Barnsley
4/14/2026League OneLeague One · Round 25Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Port Vale34%
×Draw27%
Barnsley39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.18
Barnsley
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 28 away

creates per match

Port Vale
0.90
Barnsley
1.36

allows per match

Port Vale
1.17
Barnsley
1.46

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Barnsley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
61%
Port Vale or Barnsley
73%
Draw or Barnsley
66%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
14%
Barnsley wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
69%
Port Vale 2+ goals
33%
Port Vale 3+ goals
12%
Barnsley 1+ goals
72%
Barnsley 2+ goals
36%
Barnsley 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
47%
Barnsley (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.17 · 29 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 0.90 + Barnsley defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.18

Barnsley attack 1.36 + Port Vale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Port Vale scores more
34%
level
27%
Barnsley scores more
39%

Barnsley at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

46
J. GauciPort ValePort Vale · G
7.6

Match Events

20'
Cameron Humphreys
46'
D. Brown← J. Stockley
68'
L. Connell← J. Bland
68'
R. Cleary← S. Banks
71'
M. Sherif← B. Waine
74'
Josh Earl
87'
E. Archer← G. Hall
87'
R. Croasdale← R. Walters
88'
J. Headley← L. Gordon

Possession

47%Port

Shots

8Port

Pass accuracy

46%Port

Statistics

PortBarnsley
Overview
47%Possession53%
8Total Shots19
0.91Expected Goals (xG)3.53
8Corners9
10Fouls10
Shots
8Total Shots19
1On Target4
2Off Target10
5Blocked5
5Inside Box13
3Outside Box6
Passing
47%Possession53%
308Total Passes332
182Accurate Passes228
59%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

League One: Port Vale 0–0 Barnsley

Port Vale and Barnsley drew 0-0 in League One on April 14, 2026.

Barnsley controlled possession (53%) and registered 19 shots to 8.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke on Trent.