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Barnsley vs Port Vale — League One 2018

Barnsley
Barnsley
FT
7 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Port Vale
Port Vale
8/5/2023League OneLeague One · Round 1Oakwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Barnsley32%
×Draw25%
Port Vale43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnsley
1.32
Port Vale
1.57

Port Vale creates 19% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Barnsley
1.22
Port Vale
1.08

allows per match

Barnsley
2.06
Port Vale
1.42

finishing

Barnsley+0.18scores more
Port Vale-0.37scores less

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw
57%
Barnsley or Port Vale
75%
Draw or Port Vale
68%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+
14%
Port Vale wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals
73%
Barnsley 2+ goals
38%
Barnsley 3+ goals
15%
Port Vale 1+ goals
79%
Port Vale 2+ goals
46%
Port Vale 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)
43%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.22, concedes 2.06 · 5 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.42 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.22 + Port Vale defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.32

Port Vale attack 1.08 + Barnsley defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Barnsley scores more
32%
level
25%
Port Vale scores more
43%

Port Vale at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Barnsley 7–0 Port Vale

Barnsley beat Port Vale 7-0 in League One on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Oakwell in Barnsley, South Yorkshire.