Barnsley 0–2 Port Vale: Result & Stats | League One

Barnsley

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Port Vale

R. Croasdale 89'

J. Lawrence-Gabriel 65'

9/27/2025

League One · Round 10Oakwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Barnsley49%

×Draw25%

Port Vale26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarnsleyExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.11

Barnsley

1.63

Port Vale

1.11

Barnsley creates 47% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 46 away

1.65

creates per match

0.72

1.50

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Barnsley

1.65

Port Vale

0.72

allows per match

Barnsley

1.50

Port Vale

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barnsley+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw

74%

Barnsley or Port Vale

75%

Draw or Port Vale

51%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+

26%

Port Vale wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals

80%

Barnsley 2+ goals

48%

Barnsley 3+ goals

22%

Port Vale 1+ goals

67%

Port Vale 2+ goals

30%

Port Vale 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)

66%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

Port Vale away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.61 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.65 + Port Vale defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.63

Port Vale attack 0.72 + Barnsley defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Barnsley scores more

49%

level

25%

Port Vale scores more

26%

Barnsley at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Cooper

Barnsley · G

9.2

Match Events

35'

Jordan Shipley

63'

Jonathan Bland

65'

J. Lawrence-Gabriel↳ D. Brown

66'

N. Farrugia← C. Vickers

67'

R. Cleary← D. Keillor-Dunn

71'

R. Croasdale← J. Shipley

71'

G. Hall← D. Brown

78'

J. Russell← J. Bland

81'

Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel

84'

B. Heneghan← J. Lawrence-Gabriel

89'

R. Croasdale↳ G. Hall

90+2'

R. Curtis← D. Cole

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarnsleyPort

Overview

69%Possession31%

13Total Shots14

4Corners3

6Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots14

0On Target8

8Off Target4

5Blocked2

4Inside Box10

9Outside Box4

Passing

69%Possession31%

572Total Passes256

470Accurate Passes166

82%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

Discipline

6Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3