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Polonia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin — I Liga 2018

Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Motor Lublin
Motor Lublin
8/26/2023I LigaI Liga · Round 6Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Polonia Warszawa31%
×Draw27%
Motor Lublin42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Warszawa
1.10
Motor Lublin
1.34

Motor Lublin creates 22% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 18 away

creates per match

Polonia Warszawa
1.27
Motor Lublin
1.28

allows per match

Polonia Warszawa
1.41
Motor Lublin
0.94

finishing

Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par
Motor Lublin+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Warszawa ↓

Motor Lublin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Polonia Warszawa or draw
58%
Polonia Warszawa or Motor Lublin
73%
Draw or Motor Lublin
69%

Winning margin

Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+
12%
Motor Lublin wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals
67%
Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals
30%
Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals
10%
Motor Lublin 1+ goals
74%
Motor Lublin 2+ goals
39%
Motor Lublin 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)
42%
Motor Lublin (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Warszawa at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

Motor Lublin away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Warszawa attack 1.27 + Motor Lublin defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.10

Motor Lublin attack 1.28 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Polonia Warszawa scores more
31%
level
27%
Motor Lublin scores more
42%

Motor Lublin at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Motor Lublin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Polonia Warszawa 0 – 1 Motor Lublin

Motor Lublin beat Polonia Warszawa 1-0 in I Liga on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego in Warszawa.