Polonia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin — II Liga - East 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 17+ matches
Polonia Warszawa45%
Motor Lublin28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Polonia Warszawa creates 34% more chances
Season form · 17 home / 53 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under55
- Over45
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Polonia Warszawa ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Polonia Warszawa at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches
Motor Lublin away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.25 · 53 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Polonia Warszawa attack 1.59 + Motor Lublin defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.42
Motor Lublin attack 1.13 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Polonia Warszawa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Górnik Łęczna
Widzew Łódź
GKS Katowice
Bytovia Bytów
Resovia Rzeszów
Stal Rzeszów
Garbarnia Kraków
Olimpia Elbląg
Znicz Pruszków
Pogoń Siedlce
Górnik Polkowice
Stargard Szczeciński
Lech Poznań II
SKRA Częstochowa
Stal Stalowa Wola
Elana Toruń
Legionovia Legionowo
Gryf WejherowoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Polonia Warszawa host Motor Lublin on Sunday, 4 June 2023 at 16:00. The match is part of the II Liga - East 2019/2020 season.
II Liga - East: Polonia Warszawa 1–1 Motor Lublin
Polonia Warszawa and Motor Lublin drew 1-1 in II Liga - East on June 4, 2023.
Goals: P. Tomczyk (75'), R. Król (90').
The match was played at Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego in Warszawa.