Motor Lublin 2–1 Polonia Warszawa: Result & Stats

Motor Lublin

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Polonia Warszawa

F. Lewandowski 77'

P. Meyer 54'

S. Skrabb 17'

7/11/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Motor Lublin56%

×Draw20%

Polonia Warszawa24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Motor LublinExpected goals in this matchPolonia Warszawa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.46

Motor Lublin

2.31

Polonia Warszawa

1.46

Motor Lublin creates 58% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

2.85

creates per match

1.78

1.15

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Motor Lublin

2.85

Polonia Warszawa

1.78

allows per match

Motor Lublin

1.15

Polonia Warszawa

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Motor Lublin+0.00on par

Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motor Lublin ↓

Polonia Warszawa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Motor Lublin or draw

76%

Motor Lublin or Polonia Warszawa

80%

Draw or Polonia Warszawa

44%

Winning margin

Motor Lublin wins by 2+

35%

Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Motor Lublin 1+ goals

90%

Motor Lublin 2+ goals

67%

Motor Lublin 3+ goals

40%

Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals

77%

Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals

43%

Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Motor Lublin (draw refunded)

70%

Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motor Lublin at home — creates 2.85, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Polonia Warszawa away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motor Lublin attack 2.85 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.31

Polonia Warszawa attack 1.78 + Motor Lublin defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Motor Lublin scores more

56%

level

20%

Polonia Warszawa scores more

24%

Motor Lublin at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Motor Lublin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

S. Skrabb

30'

E. Terpilowski

46'

M. Legowski← I. Rodrigues

54'

P. Meyer

71'

M. Zlomanczuk← Kikis

77'

F. Lewandowski

81'

85'

K. Kraska← M. Ndiaye

85'

D. Gregorski← K. Czubak

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff