Motor Lublin vs Polonia Warszawa — I Liga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 17+ matches
Motor Lublin38%
Polonia Warszawa38%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 17 home / 53 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over57
- Under43
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Motor Lublin ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Motor Lublin at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches
Polonia Warszawa away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Motor Lublin attack 1.65 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.48
Polonia Warszawa attack 1.45 + Motor Lublin defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.49
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Motor Lublin at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Motor Lublin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Polonia Warszawa substitutes
Wisla Krakow
Wieczysta Kraków
Slask Wroclaw
Chrobry Głogów
ŁKS Łódź
Ruch ChorzówPolonia Warszawa
Miedz Legnica
Puszcza Niepołomice
Polonia Bytom
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Odra Opole
Stal Rzeszów
Pogoń Siedlce
Stal Mielec
Znicz Pruszków
Górnik Łęczna
Tychy 71If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Motor Lublin host Polonia Warszawa on Saturday, 9 March 2024 at 14:00. The match is part of the I Liga 2018/2019 season.
Motor Lublin 1 – 1 Polonia Warszawa
Motor Lublin and Polonia Warszawa drew 1-1 in I Liga on March 9, 2024.
Goals: S. Mráz (23'), S. Kobusiński (77' pen).
The match was played at Arena Lublin in Lublin.