Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — I Liga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 17+ matches
Pogoń Siedlce42%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Pogoń Siedlce creates 19% more chances
Season form · 34 home / 17 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Pogoń Siedlce ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Pogoń Siedlce at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Pogoń Siedlce attack 1.12 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.44
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 1.12 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Pogoń Siedlce at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Pogoń Siedlce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Pogoń Siedlce substitutes
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki substitutes
Raków Częstochowa
ŁKS Łódź
Stal Mielec
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Jastrzębie
Podbeskidzie
Tychy 71
Nieciecza
Puszcza Niepołomice
Chojniczanka Chojnice
Stomil Olsztyn
Odra Opole
Warta Poznań
Chrobry Głogów
Wigry Suwałki
Bytovia Bytów
GKS Katowice
Garbarnia KrakówIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Pogoń Siedlce host Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki on Saturday, 4 October 2025 at 17:30. The match is part of the I Liga 2018/2019 season.
Pogoń Siedlce 1 – 2 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki beat Pogoń Siedlce 2-1 in I Liga on October 4, 2025.
Goals: K. Noiszewski (18'), B. Dembek (39'), M. Szczepaniak (42').
The match was played at Stadion ROSRRiT in Siedlce.