Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Pogoń Siedlce — I Liga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 17+ matches
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki49%
Pogoń Siedlce27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki creates 44% more chances
Season form · 17 home / 34 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes57
- No43
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches
Pogoń Siedlce away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 1.88 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.71
Pogoń Siedlce attack 0.97 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.19
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki substitutes
Raków Częstochowa
ŁKS Łódź
Stal Mielec
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Jastrzębie
Podbeskidzie
Tychy 71
Nieciecza
Puszcza Niepołomice
Chojniczanka Chojnice
Stomil Olsztyn
Odra Opole
Warta Poznań
Chrobry Głogów
Wigry Suwałki
Bytovia Bytów
GKS Katowice
Garbarnia KrakówIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki host Pogoń Siedlce on Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 15:00. The match is part of the I Liga 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Pogoń Siedlce
Pogoń Siedlce beat Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2-0 in I Liga on April 19, 2026.
Goals: M. Flis (36'), K. Noiszewski (68' o.g.).
The match was played at Stadion MZOS Znicz.