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Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Pogoń Siedlce — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Pogoń Siedlce
Pogoń Siedlce
K. Glogowski 60'
D. Jaron 43'
M. Rosolek 30', 16' (pen)
7/11/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki51%
×Draw21%
Pogoń Siedlce28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.17
Pogoń Siedlce
1.58

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki creates 37% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.50
Pogoń Siedlce
1.50

allows per match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67
Pogoń Siedlce
2.83

finishing

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki+0.00on par
Pogoń Siedlce+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki ↓

Pogoń Siedlce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or draw
72%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or Pogoń Siedlce
79%
Draw or Pogoń Siedlce
49%

Winning margin

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins by 2+
30%
Pogoń Siedlce wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1+ goals
89%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2+ goals
64%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3+ goals
36%
Pogoń Siedlce 1+ goals
79%
Pogoń Siedlce 2+ goals
47%
Pogoń Siedlce 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)
64%
Pogoń Siedlce (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Pogoń Siedlce away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 1.50 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.17

Pogoń Siedlce attack 1.50 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scores more
51%
level
21%
Pogoń Siedlce scores more
28%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
M. RosolekPenalty
30'
M. Rosolek
43'
D. Jaron
60'
K. Glogowski
Pogoń
Pogoń
Piotr Stokowiec
Manager: Piotr Stokowiec
Adam Nocon
Manager: Adam Nocon

Match Recap: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Pogoń Siedlce

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and Pogoń Siedlce drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2026.

Goals: M. Rosolek (16' pen, 30'), D. Jaron (43'), K. Glogowski (60').