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Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Pogoń Siedlce
Pogoń Siedlce
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Unknown 89', 82', 40' (pen)
P. Kaminski 15'
2/4/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Pogoń Siedlce45%
×Draw22%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogoń Siedlce
1.96
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67

Pogoń Siedlce creates 17% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

Pogoń Siedlce
1.56
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.55

allows per match

Pogoń Siedlce
1.78
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.36

finishing

Pogoń Siedlce+0.00on par
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Siedlce ↓

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Pogoń Siedlce or draw
67%
Pogoń Siedlce or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
78%
Draw or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
55%

Winning margin

Pogoń Siedlce wins by 2+
25%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Pogoń Siedlce 1+ goals
86%
Pogoń Siedlce 2+ goals
58%
Pogoń Siedlce 3+ goals
31%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1+ goals
81%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2+ goals
50%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Siedlce (draw refunded)
57%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Siedlce at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Siedlce attack 1.56 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.96

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 1.55 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pogoń Siedlce scores more
45%
level
22%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scores more
33%

Pogoń Siedlce at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pogoń Siedlce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
P. Kaminski
40'
Penalty
82'
89'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Pogoń Siedlce beat Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 4, 2023.

Goals: P. Kaminski (15'), ? (40' pen, 82', 89').