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Podillya Khmelnytskyi vs Karpaty — Persha Liga 2019

Podillya Khmelnytskyi
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Karpaty
Karpaty
11/18/2023Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 17Stadion Podillia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Podillya Khmelnytskyi29%
×Draw30%
Karpaty42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podillya Khmelnytskyi
0.92
Karpaty
1.17

Karpaty creates 27% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 25 away

creates per match

Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.08
Karpaty
1.28

allows per match

Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.06
Karpaty
0.76

finishing

Podillya Khmelnytskyi+0.00on par
Karpaty+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podillya Khmelnytskyi ↓

Karpaty →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Podillya Khmelnytskyi or draw
58%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi or Karpaty
70%
Draw or Karpaty
71%

Winning margin

Podillya Khmelnytskyi wins by 2+
10%
Karpaty wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Podillya Khmelnytskyi 1+ goals
60%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 2+ goals
23%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 3+ goals
7%
Karpaty 1+ goals
69%
Karpaty 2+ goals
33%
Karpaty 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Podillya Khmelnytskyi (draw refunded)
41%
Karpaty (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podillya Khmelnytskyi at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.06 · 52 matches

Karpaty away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.76 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podillya Khmelnytskyi attack 1.08 + Karpaty defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.92

Karpaty attack 1.28 + Podillya Khmelnytskyi defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Podillya Khmelnytskyi scores more
29%
level
30%
Karpaty scores more
42%

Karpaty at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Karpaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persha Liga: Podillya Khmelnytskyi 0–1 Karpaty

Karpaty beat Podillya Khmelnytskyi 1-0 in Persha Liga on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Podillia in Khmelnytskyi.