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Karpaty vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Karpaty
Karpaty
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
9/6/2020Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 1Stadion Ukrajina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Karpaty39%
×Draw24%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karpaty
1.54
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 25 away

creates per match

Karpaty
1.71
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.40

allows per match

Karpaty
1.62
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.36

finishing

Karpaty+0.00on par
Podillya Khmelnytskyi+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karpaty ↓

Podillya Khmelnytskyi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Karpaty or draw
63%
Karpaty or Podillya Khmelnytskyi
76%
Draw or Podillya Khmelnytskyi
61%

Winning margin

Karpaty wins by 2+
19%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Karpaty 1+ goals
79%
Karpaty 2+ goals
45%
Karpaty 3+ goals
20%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 1+ goals
78%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 2+ goals
44%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Karpaty (draw refunded)
51%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karpaty at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.62 · 21 matches

Podillya Khmelnytskyi away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.36 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karpaty attack 1.71 + Podillya Khmelnytskyi defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.54

Podillya Khmelnytskyi attack 1.40 + Karpaty defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Karpaty scores more
39%
level
24%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi scores more
37%

Karpaty at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Karpaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group A: Karpaty 0–3 Podillya Khmelnytskyi

Podillya Khmelnytskyi beat Karpaty 3-0 in Druha Liga - Group A on September 6, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Ukrajina in L'viv.