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Karpaty vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi — Persha Liga 2019

Karpaty
Karpaty
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
9/15/2023Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 8Stadion Ukraina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Karpaty53%
×Draw26%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karpaty
1.54
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
0.88

Karpaty creates 75% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 51 away

creates per match

Karpaty
1.92
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
0.84

allows per match

Karpaty
0.92
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.16

finishing

Karpaty+0.00on par
Podillya Khmelnytskyi+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karpaty ↓

Podillya Khmelnytskyi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Karpaty or draw
78%
Karpaty or Podillya Khmelnytskyi
74%
Draw or Podillya Khmelnytskyi
47%

Winning margin

Karpaty wins by 2+
27%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Karpaty 1+ goals
79%
Karpaty 2+ goals
45%
Karpaty 3+ goals
20%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 1+ goals
59%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 2+ goals
22%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Karpaty (draw refunded)
71%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karpaty at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

Podillya Khmelnytskyi away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.16 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karpaty attack 1.92 + Podillya Khmelnytskyi defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.54

Podillya Khmelnytskyi attack 0.84 + Karpaty defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Karpaty scores more
53%
level
26%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi scores more
22%

Karpaty at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Karpaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persha Liga: Karpaty 2–1 Podillya Khmelnytskyi

Karpaty beat Podillya Khmelnytskyi 2-1 in Persha Liga on September 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Ukraina in Lviv.