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Podillya Khmelnytskyi vs Karpaty — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Podillya Khmelnytskyi
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Karpaty
Karpaty
3/25/2021Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 14NTB Rukh L′viv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Podillya Khmelnytskyi47%
×Draw26%
Karpaty26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.46
Karpaty
1.02

Podillya Khmelnytskyi creates 43% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 21 away

creates per match

Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.58
Karpaty
1.43

allows per match

Podillya Khmelnytskyi
0.62
Karpaty
1.33

finishing

Podillya Khmelnytskyi+0.00on par
Karpaty+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podillya Khmelnytskyi ↓

Karpaty →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Podillya Khmelnytskyi or draw
74%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi or Karpaty
74%
Draw or Karpaty
53%

Winning margin

Podillya Khmelnytskyi wins by 2+
23%
Karpaty wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Podillya Khmelnytskyi 1+ goals
77%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 2+ goals
43%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 3+ goals
18%
Karpaty 1+ goals
64%
Karpaty 2+ goals
27%
Karpaty 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Podillya Khmelnytskyi (draw refunded)
64%
Karpaty (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podillya Khmelnytskyi at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.62 · 26 matches

Karpaty away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podillya Khmelnytskyi attack 1.58 + Karpaty defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.46

Karpaty attack 1.43 + Podillya Khmelnytskyi defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Podillya Khmelnytskyi scores more
47%
level
26%
Karpaty scores more
26%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Podillya Khmelnytskyi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Podillya Khmelnytskyi vs Karpaty

Podillya Khmelnytskyi beat Karpaty 4-1 in Druha Liga - Group A on March 25, 2021.

The match was played at NTB Rukh L′viv in Vynnyky.